The Bandwagon Index: A neutral fan’s guide for who to root for in the NFL playoffs (Part 2)

(Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

If you missed Part 1, you can find it here. (Read that one before this one.) (Unless you only want to see the top-seven most compelling teams in the NFL playoffs, and not the other teams. In that case, just continue below.)

7. Washington Football Team

Regular season record: 7–9

Super Bowl odds: +8,000 (80/1)

First-round opponent: home vs. Buccaneers

If you know anything about the Washington Washingtons, you probably think this is either way too high or a bit too low to rank them.

The “too high” argument is very simple: This is a below-average football team! It doesn’t belong anywhere near the playoffs! At 7–9, the Washingtons only made it because every division winner makes the postseason, and Washington finished atop the abysmal NFC East. One could argue this team should be disposed of as fast as possible so that we can get the best NFC teams into the divisional round.

That’s all very reasonable. Washington is an eight-point home underdog in the wilcard round; it’s the weakest team in the entire playoff field. HOWEVER…

Washington’s run to the postseason, as undeserving as this team may be in terms of overall quality of play, is still a great story. Some quick facts:

  • Washington finished with the second-worst record in the NFL in 2019.
  • On New Year’s Day 2020, the team hired Ron Rivera to be its coach. Rivera was diagnosed with cancer in August and underwent treatments throughout the season, but he kept coaching and inspired his players in the process. Rivera has said that coaching under these circumstances, while incredibly challenging, has been important to him amid his recovery.
  • Washington got rid of its longstanding, blatantly offensive team name this past offseason.
  • After struggling offensively for much of the season, the team changed its starting QB twice, eventually landing on Alex Smith. Smith, who Washington acquired and signed to a large extension in January 2018, returned to the field after a gruesome leg injury that he suffered in November 2018. The injury had nearly ended his career and could’ve cost him his life. Smith’s return to football was hard to watch at first; it felt like a disaster waiting to happen, especially with opposing defences knowing that he might move timidly. As he continued to play, though, Smith became more comfortable under centre again and helped guide Washington to a four-game winning streak. Smith suffered a (much less severe) calf injury in a Week 14 win, which held him out for the next couple weeks, but he returned to help the Washingtons clinch a playoff spot in the final game of the season.
  • Washington’s defence, led by No. 2 overall pick Chase Young, was the best unit from an NFC East team — on either end of the football — all season. Washington ranked third overall in defensive DVOA, with an elite pass rush anchored by Young and Montez Sweat. The Washingtons led the league with the fewest average points allowed in the second half of games, just 5.7, a remarkable number and a testament to the coaching staff’s halftime adjustments.

Rivera’s and Smith’s stories are both heartwarming and a reflection of their high character. Rivera, Smith and Young have drastically turned around this Washington team. Though it still has some offensive shortcomings, Washington has built the foundation of a contending team, featuring strong leadership from its coach and top draft pick.

Smith hasn’t exactly made the Washingtons an offensive juggernaut, but he’s been competent, and it’s impossible not to root for his success. Besides, competence was all this team needed! With the defence creating turnovers and causing headaches for opposing QBs, Smith has often only needed to convert short fields into points.

Rookie running back Antonio Gibson has looked explosive, tight end Logan Thomas and pass-catching back J.D. McKissic are helpful in the short passing game, and Terry McLaurin is a rising star receiver. McKissic finished eighth and McLaurin finished 10th among all pass-catchers in yards after the catch, both creating plays off of accurate, short throws from Smith.

Will this team win a playoff game? Probably not. Win or lose, they're not exactly going to light up the scoreboard. Still, this is an extremely likeable group with extremely likeable leaders. Their defence is legit. Don’t be surprised if Young and Sweat put Brady under pressure, take him out of his comfort zone, and possibly make him fear for his life a bit come Saturday night. Nothing is going to come easy against Washington, and considering where this team was just a year ago, that’s worth applauding.

6. Green Bay Packers

Regular season record: 13–3

Super Bowl odds: +450 (9/2)

First-round opponent: N/A (first-round bye)

Below is a list of reasons you might dislike the Packers:

  1. You’re a Chicago Bears fan.
  2. You’re a Minnesota Vikings fan.
  3. You’re a Detroit Lions fan.
  4. You root for a quarterback whose legacy may be threatened by Aaron Rodgers (see: Brady, Tom).
  5. You hate fun.

Rodgers is poised to be named MVP this year for the third time in his career, following his 2011 and 2014 seasons. You might think that’s because the media loves Rodgers and was rooting for a vintage season from the 37-year-old — which is true, of course — but Rodgers also earned this one.

Patrick Mahomes is currently the better player, no doubt, but Rodgers had the better season. He led the league in ESPN’s total quarterback rating stat, finishing with the fourth-best QBR season of all time — just a tad behind his own 2011 campaign. (Mahomes finished second this season, with the eighth-best QBR ever.)

Rodgers also led the league in completion percentage, adjusted net yards per attempt, and touchdown passes. His 48 touchdowns were the most of any season in his career, eight more than any other QB. He had fewer interceptions (five) than any other QB in the top-20 in touchdown passes. He was the architect of a dominant offence that lapped the field in offensive DVOA. After years of apparent decline, Rodgers improved by basically every statistical measure in 2020.

Speaking of that Packers offence, it’s as exciting as any in the NFL. It features Davante Adams, who’s almost universally acknowledged as the best wide receiver in the league. Adams caught 18 touchdown passes this year, tied for the third-most ever in a single season…in just 14 games. He also led all pass-catchers in receiving yards per game, led all wide receivers in yards after the catch, and finished third in catches that led to a first down (though he’d be No. 1 on a per-game basis).

Adams can elude defenders with his quick-twitch footwork, outrun them for deep throws, catch in traffic when he’s being guarded, and bully defenders for yards after the catch. He can even do all that in the snow, with his fingers probably frozen.

Rodgers has other deep threats like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who led the league with an average of 20.9 yards per reception. There’s also tight end Robert Tonyan, who went from catching 10 passes in all of the 2019–20 season to catching 11 touchdowns in 2020–21. (Tonyan’s name rhymes with Funyons, by the way.) Possibly the best deep passer in the league, Rodgers turns these no-name players into highlight producers.

The only reason this team isn’t higher on the list is that it’s too much of an obvious bandwagon choice. The Packers are a storied franchise with a history of success, they’re the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and Rodgers already won a Super Bowl back in 2011. (Most of these things also apply to the Chiefs, who are ranked higher, but Green Bay has now had nearly three decades of Hall of Fame quarterback play between Rodgers and Brett Favre before him. Kansas City is still early in its run with Mahomes, one of the most likeable athletes in the world. Let them have this one.)

It would be nice to see a vintage run from Rodgers, now in his second year working alongside an innovative, offence-oriented coach in Matt LaFleur. Green Bay is one of the most exciting teams to watch every single week; it just can’t rank any higher than this.

5. Los Angeles Rams

Regular season record: 10–6

Super Bowl odds: +3,000 (30/1)

First-round opponent: @ Seahawks

This one might be controversial, but hey: We said in Part 1 that we love a good runner-up! The Rams went all the way to the Super Bowl two years ago and lost in anti-climactic fashion, 13–3, to Tom Brady’s New England Patriots.

They have a smart and creative coach in Sean McVay, who oversees one of the most unusual offences. They have gritty wide receivers with fantastic names in Robert Woods (also known as Bobby Trees) and Cooper Kupp. The Rams also have arguably the best defence in the NFL; they were fourth in defensive DVOA and No. 1 in weighted defensive DVOA, which values games toward the end of the season more highly to show which teams are hitting their stride as the playoffs approach.

Defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey might be the league’s best players at their respective positions. Donald is the most impactful defender in the NFL, a terror to quarterbacks as he charges at them through multiple offensive linemen. Without having spoken to them personally, it’s reasonable to guess that no QB in the NFC — not even Rodgers and Russell Wilson — really wants to face this defence in the postseason.

So, uhhhhh, you’re probably wondering why L.A. is only the No. 6 seed in the conference. That would be because of QB Jared Goff.

Look, it’s rude to add insult to injury — Goff literally broke his thumb in Week 16 — but he simply hasn’t been very good when healthy. He’s 23rd in QBR and has a measly 20:13 touchdown to interception ratio. His adjusted net yards per attempt have decreased in every full season of his career (i.e., not including the seven games he played as a rookie).

This team is best encapsulated by the fact that the Rams have the fifth-shortest average depth of target (6.7 yards per pass attempt), yet also rank fifth among all teams in average yards after the catch. They’re full of dynamic playmakers like Kupp, Woods, TE Tyler Higbee and rookie RB Cam Akers, but the burden is on those players to do it the heavy lifting since Goff won’t.

Despite the turnover-prone Goff costing his team some games, the Rams have beaten quality opponents such as Seattle and Tampa Bay. Their ceiling, when Goff plays well, is perhaps as high as any in the NFC. They have such an unusual roster and playing style, which is precisely why they’re so intriguing.

The Rams may not win a playoff game, but it will be a lot of fun to see their defence matched up against Wilson for a third time this season. Goff’s status is still uncertain due to his injury, but backup QB John Wolford proved to be at least competent in Week 17. Reading between the lines, it sounds like Goff is likely to play, as McVay told ESPN that Goff is “doing everything that [the Rams’] practice allows.”

If Goff unexpectedly sits out, or leaves the game early, Wolford has shown some mobility as a runner that Goff lacks. The question mark at quarterback is just another reason that L.A. is one of the most fascinating playoff teams.

If they manage to pull off the wildcard upset, the Rams’ defence would have an even taller task against Rodgers and the Packers. Those two units facing off would be among the postseason’s best matchups.

4. Cleveland Browns

Regular season record: 11–5

Super Bowl odds: +4,500 (45/1)

First-round opponent: @ Steelers

Look, maybe we’re asking for heartbreak here. Until now, Cleveland hadn’t made the playoffs since 2003. The last time the Browns won 10 games, they still missed the playoffs in 2007 — because even when the Browns are good, bad things happen to them.

The Browns lost to the then 1–13 New York Jets in Week 16, nearly pushing them out of the playoffs entirely, mostly because COVID protocols kept their entire wide receiver group out of the lineup. It’s Murphy’s law: Everything that can go wrong, does go wrong with this franchise.

Except when it doesn’t.

Last Sunday, when the Steelers sat most of their starters, the Browns just barely eked out a must-win game. Leading 24–16, Cleveland gave up a late touchdown that would’ve allowed the Steelers to tie the game via two-point conversion with 1:23 to go. But on the two-point try, backup QB Mason Rudolph fired an errant pass over Chase Claypool’s head, and the Browns maintained the lead, 24–22. Minutes later, Cleveland had clinched a playoff spot for the first time since LeBron James was in high school.

Until the 2016 Cavaliers title, there was no question that Cleveland was the most tortured American sports city. We saw how their fans reacted to the city’s first pro sports title in more than 50 years. Don’t get your hopes up that the Browns will make the Super Bowl, but on the off chance that they upset Pittsburgh and make some noise in the playoffs, they’d be well worth rooting for.

In terms of the on-field product, this is an unconventional modern team, with a two-headed rushing attack that features one of the league’s best running backs in Nick Chubb.

Chubb’s powerful runs set up a sometimes explosive play-action attack. Cleveland’s first-year head coach, Kevin Stefanski, is one of the league’s most innovative play-callers; he understands the importance of the pass. The Browns showcased that in Week 13, when QB Baker Mayfield threw four passing touchdowns in the first half against the Tennessee Titans.

The Browns outscored the Titans 38–7 in that half alone, proving that they compete with playoff-calibre competition. Unfortunately, Stefanski — who might be the Coach of the Year this season — tested positive for COVID-19 this week and won’t be able to coach his team for the wildcard game. The Browns also had to close their facility due to more COVID cases, preventing them from conducting full, in-person practices. They’re fighting an uphill battle here, for the worst reasons.

It’ll be interesting to see Cleveland once again take on Pittsburgh, its divisional rival and an older brother of sorts. The Steelers have always bullied the Browns and come out on top in their battles; Pittsburgh has won 17 of the last 22 meetings between these two teams. Wouldn’t it be great if Cleveland overcomes its archrival to pick up its first playoff win in 26 years?

The Browns don’t have the offensive juice to rise higher on this list, but they’re one of the most likeable underdogs across all sports. If they pull off an upset, you’ll want to be there for the ride.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Regular season record: 14–2

Super Bowl odds: +200 (2/1)

First-round opponent: N/A (first-round bye)

It’s hard to reconcile all that stuff about lovable losers and runner-ups with ranking the defending champs this high. My counterpoint:

The Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy are as aggressive and creative as it gets when it comes to offensive play-calling — occasionally to their detriment. The two fit perfectly with QB Patrick Mahomes, the best player in the league three years running.

It’s a joy to watch Mahomes and this team. Concerns about Kansas City have been brought up in recent weeks because of a string of close games they’ve played, but at the end of the day, the Chiefs finished the season 14–2 (and would’ve been 15–1 had they not rested their starters in Week 17, after they had already clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed).

The Chiefs always seem to find what they need to win at any given moment, or else they get lucky with things they can’t control breaking perfectly in their favour. When it comes to things they can control, this Kansas City team makes everything look effortless. No matter the situation, no matter how much they trail by or how much time is left in the game, it never feels like the Chiefs are in serious danger of losing — at least, not when you’ve already watched Mahomes pull off so many comeback victories.

The Chiefs became the first team ever to overcome a double-digit deficit in all of their playoff games en route to their Super Bowl victory last year. That’s no coincidence. Mahomes is a rock under pressure, and this team is one of the best passing attacks ever — even if DVOA only rated them only No. 2 in offence and passing this season, behind Green Bay in both categories.

Travis Kelce, one of the team’s staples, is the best tight end in football. He finished third among all players in receiving yards per game and second in yards after the catch. Despite missing the Week 17 game, Kelce had the most receiving yards ever for a tight end. He led the league in receptions that led to first downs; Kelce is essentially Mahomes’s release valve, the most dependable receiving option in the league next to Davante Adams. Kelce excels at finding the holes in a zone, his hands can catch any ball thrown in his vicinity, and he constantly bullies his way into more space after the catch. He’s also one of the NFL’s goofiest and most likeable players.

The rest of Mahomes’s receiver corps includes a bunch of lightning-quick wideouts who can fly down the field and create space. There’s no better QB for them than Mahomes, who thrives when he’s hanging in the pocket, dancing around and scrambling, waiting for someone to break free and for a new passing angle to open up. Mahomes had the most “big-time throws” in the league this year for a reason. His patience might be his best quality as a QB, which says a lot because, uh, Mahomes sure has a lot of great qualities.

Kansas City is the clear favourite to repeat as Super Bowl champions, so this strays from our search for underdogs. But to be fair, the franchise and its fans endured decades of heartbreaking playoff losses before Mahomes arrived in 2017 and emerged as a saviour. It’s not like we’re rooting for the Patriots here. (In fact, rooting for Mahomes to add to his loaded resume is rooting for him to continue his early trajectory toward GOAT status, which doubles a vote against Brady. We’re playing 4-D chess.)

Watching sports is supposed to be fun, and there might not be a more fun and easy team to root for than the Chiefs. If you’re going to get emotionally attached to a team, this is the one that’s least likely to make you suffer. It might be masochistic to rank them as low as third.

2. Baltimore Ravens

Regular season record: 11–5

Super Bowl odds: +1,000 (10/1)

First-round opponent: @ Titans

Two years ago, Lamar Jackson rose to prominence as a rookie. The Ravens started the 2018 season 4–5 before Jackson took over as the starting QB and led the team to six wins over its final seven regular-season games. Baltimore lost in the wildcard round to the Chargers, but the future was bright.

Then, last season, Jackson led the Ravens to a league-best 14–2 record and was named MVP. But in January, Baltimore fell apart, losing its first playoff game at home to the 9–7 Titans in the divisional round. The prevailing discourse around Jackson quickly swung from “incredible player” and “rising young star” to “playoff choker.”

It’s heartbreaking to see someone reach those heights and still come up short when it matters most. It happens to almost every great athlete early in their career; it’s hard to win a championship right away, and it usually takes years of playoff defeats and newfound experience to get over the hump. Even the seemingly perfect Mahomes has experienced that.

This time around, there was a brief second when it seemed like the Ravens wouldn’t even get another crack at a playoff run. Baltimore started the season 6–2, but things began to unravel in November. The Ravens lost to a mediocre Patriots team in a monsoon, with Jackson struggling to throw and unable to mount a comeback after trailing early — the two biggest criticisms of Jackson thus far in his career.

Baltimore then lost a crushing overtime game to Tennessee, once again getting pushed around by the brute strength of Derrick Henry. Blocking tight end Nick Boyle suffered a season-ending injury in the Patriots game. TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore’s top pass-catcher, missed games due to injury and COVID-19. WR Marquise Brown struggled on the field and tweeted his frustration. Finally, worst of all, the Ravens suffered a COVID-19 outbreak shortly after the Tennessee game, with Jackson himself getting the virus. With their backups thrust into the spotlight, the Ravens lost a postponed game to the Steelers, and suddenly Baltimore was just 6–5, on the outside of the playoff picture.

Fortunately for the Ravens, their late-season schedule was easy, with four of their final games coming against teams with records below .500. Baltimore won five straight to clinch a playoff spot at 11–5 and end the season on a high note.

Amid that stretch, Baltimore’s one matchup against a quality opponent turned out to be the game of the year. Much like their season as a whole, the Ravens seemed to be down and out; they trailed 35–34 with just two minutes remaining, and Jackson was nowhere to be seen. He had left the game earlier in the quarter, when the Ravens led 34–20, due to cramps (and not because he badly needed to use the restroom, as Jackson humorously clarified after the game).

And then…Lamar emerged from the locker room like a hero in a sports movie, just in time to save the day — except the TV broadcast cut to commercial.

Despite the bad timing of the commercial break, the scene that played out next really did feel like a sports movie, or maybe more of a Marvel superhero flick. Jackson came in when the Ravens were on fourth down, poised to lose the game if they didn’t gain five yards for a first down. But Jackson would help them do that and a whole lot more.

Jackson threw that incredible touchdown pass, the Ravens came back again in the final minute (after their defence gave up another TD to Chubb), and Lamar did what he’s been scrutinized for not being able to do: He pulled off a comeback with a game-winning drive.

That win, on the road against a division rival in the Browns, quite literally saved the Ravens’ season. If they had lost, but still won their final three games to finish 10–6, they wouldn’t have made the postseason.

Nearly a month later, Baltimore is faced with the same task from a year ago, the same task that it failed to accomplish again in November: Beat the Tennessee Titans. It’s the ultimate chance for revenge.

If the Ravens can pull this one off, it would silence the Jackson doubters, at least for now. It would be the perfect way to redeem the brutal end to Lamar’s magical MVP season. Looking beyond that, Baltimore would face a tall task in a likely matchup with either Kansas City or Buffalo, and it’s tough to see how the Ravens would defeat either of those elite passing offences. But maybe all Lamar needs is to be counted out.

Baltimore is a ground-and-pound team that wins with excellent defence and a run-heavy offensive scheme — seemingly not ideal for aesthetics. But it isn’t hyperbole to say that Jackson is the best runner as a QB ever. Jackson led the league in rushing yards per attempt (6.3) for the second straight season; most Baltimore games include Jackson breaking away for huge runs that are dazzling to watch. The threat of Jackson’s fake handoffs and designed runs makes life easier for RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, who both finished near the top of the league in terms of EPA (estimated points added) per rush. (Dobbins also finished third overall in yards per carry, behind only Jackson and another elite running QB, Arizona’s Kyler Murray.)

Jackson and this Ravens team are deeply flawed. That’s how stories work, though: The most compelling protagonists are the ones who have to overcome their inadequacies to achieve their dreams. Let’s hope this team does that, for at least one playoff round.

1. Buffalo Bills

Regular season record: 13–3

Super Bowl odds: +700 (7/1)

First-round opponent: home vs. Colts

The Buffalo Bills broke the bandwagon index.

Remember the criteria we laid out in Part 1 yesterday, about 24 hours and 7,000 or so words ago? Watchability. Likeability. Compelling storylines. Tragic franchise history. The Bills have all of it.

Let’s start with the team’s history. Buffalo famously made four consecutive Super Bowls from 1990 to 1993 and, infamously, lost all four.

The Bills have only made the postseason twice in the 21st century, losing in the wildcard round both times. They haven’t won a playoff game since the 1995–96 season, which was also the last time they won their division — until this year. Much like Cleveland, this is one of the league’s most enthusiastic yet tortured fan bases. It’s been incredible to watch these fans experience their team’s success — though perhaps we could do without the potential super-spreader events.

Another point to Buffalo’s credit is the story of this team’s complete transformation from year to year.

In 2019, the Bills were a hard-nosed defensive team. They were No. 7 in defensive DVOA but just 21st in offence, and they went 10–6 against one of the league’s easiest schedules. Starting QB Josh Allen was the league’s most inaccurate passer, completing just 58.8 per cent of his passes. Allen ranked 24th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR.

The Bills acquired star wide receiver Stefon Diggs in March 2020. Between the addition of Diggs, Allen’s individual improvements, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s bold play-calling, Buffalo’s offence has been a revelation.

After skeptics questioned how Diggs would fit in with his new team, he’s answered the call. Diggs led the league in receiving yards, finished second in yards per game, and tied Davante Adams for third in first-down catches. Diggs was critiqued for his attitude when he was with the Minnesota Vikings, but he seems to have become everyone’s favourite teammate in Buffalo. Diggs developed a bond with Allen through playing video games, joining his new teammate despite not even liking video games. During a Week 17 win, Diggs decided to take care of his dental hygiene on the sidelines, because why not?

It’s hard not to like this guy.

Allen’s improvement has been perhaps the biggest surprise in the league, as well as one of the season’s most remarkable stories. He’s risen all the way to fourth in completion percentage, a stunning turnaround from last season. He threw 37 touchdown passes, fifth among all QBs, to just 10 interceptions. He ranked third in QBR, sixth in yards per attempt and fifth in adjusted net yards per attempt. Allen always had the strong arm of a deep thrower, but he never had the accuracy before 2020. Now, he does.

The Allen-Diggs combination has propelled the Bills to become the No. 3 passing offence by DVOA (and No. 5 overall offence), trailing only Rodgers’s Packers and Mahomes’s Chiefs. They’re in pretty good company.

In addition to improving from year to year, Buffalo has improved over the course of just this season. The Bills went into their Week 11 bye with a 7–3 record, after a crushing loss via the Hail Murray. A weaker team might have faltered, but not this one. Buffalo reeled off six straight victories to close out the regular season, including a signature Week 14 win against the Steelers that helped the Bills secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

The Bills scored 30+ points nine times this season. Their final seven wins were all by double digits. Their final three wins were all by at least 29 points, an unthinkable number. They scored 56 in Week 17 against a Dolphins defence that ranked sixth in points allowed per game…and that was with most of the starters resting after halftime, as the Bills already led 28–6. Even Buffalo’s backups dominated against Miami, a team that was fighting for a playoff spot in that game.

Allen and Diggs set several team records for their respective positions as the Bills steamrolled through the final five weeks. In the process, Buffalo proved to be one of the league’s most fun offences, not holding back as they crushed their competition. Even when games were already out of reach, the Bills continued to make massive plays for touchdowns.

Daboll and the Bills were bold enough to use some well-designed trickery on occasion, resulting in brilliant plays like Allen catching a touchdown in Week 10 and receiver Cole Beasley throwing one in Week 12.

The Bills are the one team in the AFC that seems to have the offensive firepower to compete with Kansas City. With excellent receivers, a quarterback who can scramble and throw accurate deep passes on the move, and an improving defence, the Bills have a chance to give the Chiefs a run for their money.

Buffalo is a fun, young team with plenty of exciting talent. The Bills have plenty of likeable personalities, from Allen’s leadership to Diggs’s sideline antics to Beasley’s flowing blond locks. Even in a season with mostly empty arenas, Bills fans produced a heartwarming moment, as they donated thousands of dollars to a hospital in honour of Allen’s late grandmother. There’s so much to like here, on and off the field.

The Bills aren’t the only team to root for. The playoff picture, and especially the AFC this season, is loaded with exciting teams, explosive offences and feel-good stories.

Among those teams, Buffalo is simply the best combination of a fantastic product on the field and a compelling story behind it. Hop on the bandwagon now — it won’t be long before we run out of space.



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