The Bandwagon Index: A neutral fan’s guide for who to root for in the NFL playoffs (Part 1)
In the first half of this exercise, we examine teams No. 14 through 8, counting down from the least to the most fun and compelling team to root for.
(Note: Part 2 of this series can be found here.)
Somehow, the NFL playoffs are upon us. Despite questionable protocols and decisions not to postpone games throughout the season, the league didn’t shut down due to COVID-19. The NFL is heading into its first-ever 14-team postseason. Each conference has added one playoff team, expanding from six to seven per conference, which means only the top seed on each side will get the much-coveted bye on Wildcard Weekend.
If you’re not from a city with an NFL team and you have no ties to a particular franchise or player, or even if you cheer for a team that didn’t make the playoffs — sorry, Giants fans — you might be looking for a rooting interest this postseason. Whether you’ve been paying close attention, watching from afar or hardly watching at all, it’s fun to pick a team to latch onto at this time of year.
There are different ways to approach this field and to pick a team that suits you. We’re not going to use a points system — instead, this is just going to be an arbritary process that hinges a lot on vibes. Here are some of the things that you should look for in your potential bandwagon team.
- Watchability. No one wants to root for a boring team. Explosive and dazzling plays are fun; two-yard gains are not. That doesn’t mean that teams that run the ball a lot can’t be fun to watch (we’ll get to the Cleveland Browns later), but the offence must be exciting, and that often means a diverse scheme. Defence and offensive line play and all that jazz can also be appreciated, but a talented quarterback, an innovative play-caller and potential for dynamic plays at any moment are crucial to a team’s entertainment value.
- Likeability. This is adjacent to watchability, but we want players who are fun to root for. Teammates who seem to genuinely enjoy playing with one another are usually more likeable. Players with personality and flair are appreciated in this space (even if the NFL foolishly discourages players from having fun).
- Compelling storylines. Everyone likes a good comeback story or revenge tour. There’s something very moving about a team that has a magical season end in heartbreak, a la the final shot in the movie “Coach Carter.” When a team can bounce back from a season like that and emerge stronger the next year, it’s impossible not to root for them. (That’s why the 2013–14 San Antonio Spurs are one of the most universally beloved championship teams in professional sports.)
- Franchise history. We’re looking for franchises who have a history of failure, not success. We all have that friend who’s a fan of the Yankees, Lakers and Patriots. No one likes that person! This isn’t the most important aspect of picking your bandwagon team, but it’s nice when a franchise with a long history of losing can finally change its fortunes. The 2010s saw the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Cavaliers turn the tide after decades of heartbreaking losses. It would be cool to start the 2020s with a lesser franchise bringing its fans some joy in an otherwise gloomy year, rather than see a historically great franchise continue its winning ways.
Again, there’s no strict scoring system here, so these rankings are at the writer’s extremely-subjective-yet-totally-infallible discretion. Let’s begin.
14. Chicago Bears
Regular season record: 8–8
Super Bowl odds: +8,000 (80/1)
First-round opponent: @ Saints
The Bears haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1985. They haven’t won a playoff game in a decade. After falling to 5–7 in early December, this team won three of its final four games to sneak into the playoffs as the NFC’s No. 7 seed. They have all the makings of a lovable underdog!
The problem is…well, the Bears are utterly unwatchable against quality defences. Chicago has beaten only one team that finished with a record above .500, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5, and the Bucs were missing key players (including Pro Bowl wide receiver Chris Godwin) for that game. The Bears lost six straight games at one point. They’re just not good!
Sure, Chicago has looked better with Mitchell Trubisky back under centre — they scored 30+ points in four straight games from Weeks 13 through 16 — but the Bears have been tough to watch when they face even competent defences. That was the case in Week 16, when they managed a measly 16 points against the Green Bay Packers. Even after their late surge, the Bears finished 25th in offence by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
Some of their own fans were probably half-hoping they wouldn’t make the playoffs, since it seems like the team’s late run may cause them to sign Trubisky to a contract extension and retain coach Matt Nagy, which seemed unlikely just a month prior.
Bear in mind (pun intended) that the wins that may have saved Nagy’s job came against the 4–12 Texans, the 7–9 Vikings and the 1–15 Jaguars. That winning streak was sandwiched between losses to the Detroit Lions (who finished the season 5–11) and the Packers, who Chicago lost to in Week 17, with a playoff spot on the line. The Bears still would’ve missed the postseason if it weren’t for the Arizona Cardinals imploding in the final two weeks.
Chicago’s strength is supposed to be its defence, which ranks 7th in DVOA. But the Bears have given up huge scoring games to every half-decent offence they’ve faced in the past few weeks, including non-playoff teams in the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. So, when it comes to a high-stakes playoff game, how well will the Bears’ defence really fare? Why is this team still around?
In this corner, we’re rooting for the New Orleans Saints to take care of business in the wildcard game and bring Chicago’s up-and-down season to an abrupt end. (Naturally, that means the Bears will pull off the biggest upset of the playoffs, get blown out by Green Bay again in the divisional round, and bring back Nagy and Trubisky for another mediocre season in 2021–22.)
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
Regular season record: 12–4
Super Bowl odds: +2,200 (22/1)
First-round opponent: home vs. Browns
After an 11–0 start, Pittsburgh cratered and lost four of its final five games — granted, the Steelers rested or limited many of their starters in their Week 17 loss to the Browns.
During the season, Pittsburgh lost key linebackers Devin Bush, Bud Dupree and Robert Spillane to injury, sidelining them the rest of the way. The Steelers also had their bye week moved and multiple games delayed to COVID-19 outbreaks on other teams. Despite it all, they managed a 12–4 record and the league’s No. 1 defence by DVOA. Pretty compelling case for an “us against the world” story, right?
Yes and no. There are still some strong reasons to dislike the Steelers. First, the non-football reasons:
- This team is whiny. All season, Pittsburgh’s players complained about the team having to deal with the impact of COVID-19 postponements. Most notably, they objected to having to play three games in 12 days after the Ravens’ outbreak forced their Thanksgiving game to be postponed. Never mind the fact that every single NFL team plays three games in 12 days at one point!
- Juju Smith-Schuster danced on opposing teams’ logos before road games for most of the season, earning the ire of opponents. It culminated with a hard hit on Juju by a Cincinnati defender in Week 15, when the Steelers lost embarrassingly to the Bengals, who were 2–10–1 at the time. Smith-Schuster sheepishly said after the game that he’d stop the logo dancing.
More importantly, there’s the obvious football reason: The Steelers are monotonous and boring to watch. They have no run game; lead running back James Conner often looks like his cleats are stuck in mud. Aging quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is rarely able to throw accurate deep passes anymore (despite his heroic efforts in a Week 16 comeback victory). Pittsburgh has gotten by all season with short passes to wide receivers and tight ends as an extension of the run game. It’s worked, but just barely, with the Steelers scoring 30+ points just twice all season and finishing 22nd in offensive DVOA. Even when it works, it’s rarely pretty, with explosive plays coming few and far between.
Roethlisberger finished third in the league in pass attempts and completions — even in one fewer game than Matt Ryan and Tom Brady — but he was just 29th in yards per attempt in 22nd in adjusted net yards per attempt (which weighs sacks, passing touchdowns and interceptions more accurately). That’s a reflection of the short and inefficient passes he’s throwing, which aren’t exactly fun to watch. At his age, with his injury history and lack of mobility, Big Ben isn’t the dynamic passer that he used to be.
As if that wasn’t enough, the Steelers’ conference features all of the top-four teams on this list, including their first-round opponent. It’s hard to root for a team whose competition is far more likeable and fun to watch than they are. (We’ll get to those teams in Part 2 of this column.)
12. Tennessee Titans
Regular season record: 11–5
Super Bowl odds: +2,800 (28/1)
First-round opponent: home vs. Ravens
Though it only earned him a few yards on the play, Derrick Henry’s monstrous stiff-arm on Josh Norman in October is one of the first things that comes to mind with regards to the Titans’ likeability:
Henry is a 6'3", 240-pound physical specimen, the most fearsome and impactful running back in the NFL. When he’s on, as he was last postseason, he can demoralize opponents with those menacing stiff-arms and chunk plays that keep the clock running and the ball in Tennessee’s possession. When the Titans faced Baltimore in Week 11, Henry bullied his way into an unstoppable run to win the game with an overtime touchdown.
Henry led the league in rushing yards for the second straight year, became one of only eight players ever to rush for 2,000+ yards in a season, and is essentially lapping the field in RB stats.
Of course, we all know the catch with RBs in the modern game: They simply can’t be the most efficient source of offence. Henry’s mark of just over five yards per carry over the past two seasons has been impressive, but the Titans’ offence still runs best when they’re slinging passes downfield. QB Ryan Tannehill often uses play-action to leverage the threat of Henry into huge passing plays, gaining 7.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. That number ranked fourth in the league (behind only the top-two MVP candidates in Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, as well as the superb Deshaun Watson).
Even the main knock on Tanehill, which is that the threat of Henry in the run game allows him to be this good as a passer, is only partially true: Tannehill has thrived in practically every passing scenario this season, with or without Henry on the field.
This team is built around Henry’s runs, but the passing plays work better, more often than not. Aside from Henry’s occasional violent stiff-arm, the passing is usually the more fun aspect of Tennesse’s offence. Despite that, the Titans frequently call run plays on early downs, making offence more difficult with longer third down conversions. Henry’s massive runs make for highlight plays, but when he isn’t able to break those off, it’s not pretty. Add in Tennessee’s non-existent pass defence, and this team seems to have limited upside if matched up with the elite offences of Buffalo and Kansas City.
Aside from the stylistic aspect, it feels like we’ve seen this movie before with Tennessee. As the No. 6 seed in the AFC last year, the Titans made it all the way to the conference championship game before Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs knocked them out. Unless they suddenly change their offensive game plan — or develop some semblance of defence against the pass — the Titans seem bound for a second-round exit, at best. Tennessee’s ceiling isn’t any higher now than it was last January, and its defence actually regressed from middling in 2019–20 to atrocious this season. Let’s hope to see some new faces compete with Kansas City for the AFC crown.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Regular season record: 11–5
Super Bowl odds: +1,000 (10/1)
First-round opponent: @ Washington
Ah, Mr. Tompa Bay and his Buccaneers. If this column had been written anytime from, say, 2014 to 2019, you bet Tom Brady and the New England Patriots would’ve finished last (i.e., No. 12 in the old playoff format) every single time. They were perfect sports villains, from Brady’s personality, to their remarkable run of success, to their alleged/confirmed cheating. Everything about the Brady-Belichick Patriots was hateable (except cartoon character and elite tight end Rob Gronkowski, who joined Brady in Tampa Bay).
Unfortunately, like many of us, Brady changed employers in 2020. He’s had a good but inconsistent season with the Bucs. Brady has often struggled to gel with head coach Bruce Arians, whose offensive strategy seems to be “throw it as far as you can and have one of your Pro Bowl receivers catch it.” (In Arians’s own words: “No risk it, no biscuit.”) It works a lot of the time! And it’s fun to watch pretty much all the time, whether it leads to a long touchdown or an interception.
Brady hasn’t fared well against defences that can pressure him, which is no surprise for a 43-year-old who isn’t exactly mobile in the pocket. It figures that the Bucs had trouble against the elite defences of the LA Rams and New Orleans Saints. Otherwise, though, Tampa Bay’s offence has looked as dynamic as any team’s, scoring 30+ points in eight different games — including its final three to close the season. Brady threw 40 touchdown passes, shockingly the second-most of his career (behind only his historic 2007 season). The Bucs finished with a record of 11–5, and three of their losses were by three points or fewer.
With Godwin, Gronkowski and star wideout Mike Evans flanking Brady, Tampa Bay has been plenty of fun to watch at times. It’s ridiculous that this team has to go on the road to face the 7–9 Washington Football Team, who won the putrid NFC East. (We’ll get to the Washingtons in Part 2.) You’d think that might create a little chip on their shoulder. Tampa Bay is also heading to the playoffs for the first time since 2008, and it’s always cool for a fan base to see success after such a long drought.
But…we’re talking about Brady, here. The aforementioned success/cheating/general New England sports vibes will always make him unlikeable. Brady is still one of the NFL’s premier villains. It’s a testament to the Buccaneers’ offensive firepower that they’re even ranked this high, as opposed to being No. 14. Get ready, Washington.
10. Indianapolis Colts
9. New Orleans Saints
Regular season record: Saints: 12–4; Colts: 11–5
Super Bowl odds: Saints: +750 (15 to 2); Colts: +3,500 (35/1)
First-round opponent: Saints: home vs. Bears; Colts: @ Bills
How fitting: The teams who matched up in Super Bowl XLIV in 2010 are right beside each other here.
These two teams, strangely enough, have a lot of parallels — despite the fact that New Orleans is the NFC’s No. 2 seed, with home-field advantage secured for at least two rounds of the playoffs, while the Colts had to scrape and claw just to snag the AFC’s No. 7 seed.
Despite their very different situations, the Saints and Colts are separated by just one game in the standings. They’re both top-seven defences in the league by DVOA (Saints No. 2, Colts No. 7), with offences that are a bit more limited (Saints No. 7, Colts No. 12).
Each team features an old quarterback who can’t move much or throw deep anymore (Drew Brees and Philip Rivers), causing them to rely on running backs in the short passing game to create explosive plays (Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray for the Saints, Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines for the Colts). Kamara erupted for six rushing touchdowns in a Week 16 game, the most for one player in a game since 1929. The rookie RB Taylor helped the Colts secure a playoff spot in Week 17 with 253 rushing yards, the ninth-most rushing yards ever for a player in a single game.
The Saints are slightly better in just about every aspect, and star WR Michael Thomas is supposed to return from injury for New Orleans to start the playoffs. Between these two teams, Thomas is by far the best receiver, and he’s one of the best in the entire NFL.
Even with Thomas back in the mix, though, both these teams lack the explosiveness to truly scare anyone with their offences. Their strengths lie on the defensive end, and the Saints’ defence is superior in causing havoc. New Orleans is the contender that could present problems for Rodgers, Brady or Russell Wilson in the divisional round. The Colts are just a scrappy and solid team, and it would be a shock to see them upset the Buffalo Bills in the wildcard.
Ultimately, neither of these teams evoke strong feelings of like or hate. They belong in the playoffs, but there’s no reason to root strongly for or against them, as a neutral fan.
The one swing factor is Taysom Hill for New Orleans. Hill started four games at quarterback for the Saints in Brees’s absence earlier this season. With Brees back, Hill is used in a variety of roles — as a passer, a receiver, a running back and even in special teams sometimes. He’s a totally unique player in a league that isn’t “position-less” like the NBA.
It was tempting to place the Colts slightly above New Orleans because of Rivers. The Colts added him this year at age 39; Rivers previously spent 16 seasons with the Chargers, where he was an excellent player but didn’t have much playoff success amid middling rosters. Ultimately, though, Taysom Hill puts the wildcard in Wildcard Weekend, so he and the Saints get the slight edge as the more interesting team to watch and root for.
8. Seattle Seahawks
Regular season record: 12–4
Super Bowl odds: +1,200 (12/1)
First-round opponent: home vs. Rams
The Seahawks are, uh, the anti-Saints of sorts. New Orleans is a pillar of consistency, with high defensive upside and a limited offence. On the other hand, Seattle has all the potential in the world on offence, an improving defence that can still only do so much, and the tendency to be a completely different team from week to week.
Seattle started the season 5–0, with Russell Wilson slinging passes downfield and the offence racking up points. Wilson and the team campaigned (far too early) for him to win MVP, or at least get some votes for the first time in his career.
Then the Seahawks had a bye week, Wilson went on The Bill Simmons Podcast (a massive jinx for any great athlete), and Seattle lost its first game after the bye.
After throwing 19 touchdowns to just three interceptions in Seattle’s first five games, Wilson went on to throw just nine TD passes to seven interceptions over the next four. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, a football traditionalist whose Super Bowl teams in the early 2010s were built with great defence and a strong run game, decided that he’d “let Russ cook” for too long.
The Seahawks changed their approach, becoming a more conservative offence over their final seven games. Wilson stopped throwing nearly as many deep bombs. His incredible passing numbers disintegrated; Wilson never threw for more than 263 yards or two touchdowns the rest of the way, save for a game against the putrid New York Jets.
On the other hand, Wilson cut down on the turnovers, throwing just three interceptions in those final seven games. Seattle ran the ball more, controlling the clock and not risking too many wild passes. The Seahawks’ defence improved, too, limiting opponents to 23 or fewer points in each of their final eight games, along with just 5.9 yards per pass attempt, compared to an absurd 8.1 yards per attempt over the first eight games. Seattle was helped by an easier schedule down the stretch, but nonetheless, the Seahawks won six of their final seven games to close the season on a high note.
The First Half Seahawks were far more exciting to watch. The Second Half Seahawks had a better defence, but that defence was never tested against an elite offence. What should we expect from this Seahawks team in the playoffs? Is there any way the offence will return to early-season form?
Well, against the L.A. Rams in the wildcard round, don’t count on that happening. L.A.’s menacing defence will be a tough test, but against either Jared Goff or a backup QB, Seattle’s defence should continue its strong run, as it held the Rams to just nine points in their Week 16 meeting. Carroll knows that the Seahawks likely won’t need much more from their offence than to score in the low 20s and to avoid turnovers at all costs. That sounds like the recipe for a boring gameplan and a low-scoring game. Not fun!
Seattle is here because of its upside, though. Even if the Seahawks play a conservative offensive game, Wilson is one of the league’s best and most exiciting QBs to watch. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are excellent receivers, and Metcalf, an otherworldly athlete, is must-see TV for the possibility that he can make plays like this at any moment — on either side of the football!
Put it this way: The Saints are more likely than the Seahawks are to win their wildcard game, as well as more likely to make the NFC Championship Game. But even given all that, the Seahawks might still have a better chance against the Packers.
If it comes down to a shootout with Aaron Rodgers, where Seattle’s defence can no longer be helped by mediocre opposing QBs, it might be time to let Russ cook again. The Seahawks can get back to firing the ball downfield, trusting Metcalf and Lockett to fly by opposing secondaries, and worrying more about scoring points than saving possessions.
It’s probably not going to happen for the Seahawks. They very well may not make it past the Rams in Round 1. But if Seattle can just survive another game or two of slow and methodical offence, there’s a chance we find ourselves in an epic Wilson-Rodgers battle. That matchup alone makes it worth holding out hope for Seattle’s offence to return to form.
To read Part 2 of this series, click here.
